Economic growth forecasts were discussed at the headquarters under the chairmanship of Serik Zhumangarin
19.08.2025 17:44:52 7363
At a meeting of the headquarters for ensuring economic growth, chaired by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin, forecasts for GDP growth for 8 months and the progress of work in the main sectors that form the foundation for GDP growth were considered: agriculture, transport, mining and manufacturing, trade, and construction.
Agriculture
Agriculture forms about 4% of the country's GDP. Over the 7 months of 2025, gross output increased by 3,7%, to 2,4 trillion tenge.
Crop production: +5% (454,1 billion tenge)
Livestock: +3,4% (1,9 trillion tenge)
Based on the results of January-August, the industry's contribution is forecast at 3%.
Transport and logistics
The transport industry demonstrates one of the highest growth rates: +22,5% in 7 months. This rate is largely due to the development of basic sectors of the economy: mining and metallurgy, oil and gas, agriculture, construction and trade, which are the main consumers of transport services. According to the results of 2024, the contribution to GDP was 5,6%, by the end of the year it is expected to reach 6,5%.
By the end of the year, an increase in transportation volumes is expected for all types of transport, which will be achieved through:
- completion of work on 7 thousand km of roads (including the reconstruction of Kalbatau-Maikapshagay, Kyzylorda-Zhezkazgan);
- completion of construction of second tracks on «Dostyk – Moiynty»;
- completion of construction of the bypass line of Almaty station.
Additional growth will be provided by domestic transportation of grain and fuel in anticipation of the heating season.
Trade
The contribution of trade to GDP in 2024 reached 19%. Over 7 months, growth was 8,6% (37,7 trillion tenge), the plan for 8 months is +9%. At the same time, nominal growth in July compared to July last year was a record 20%.
Wholesale trade: +9,5% (25,2 trillion tenge)
Retail trade: +6,6% (12,3 trillion tenge)
- The main contribution to the growth of trade - a total of 71%, or 26,9 trillion tenge - is made by five regions: Almaty, Astana, Shymkent, Atyrau and Karaganda regions, - said First Vice Minister of Trade and Integration Aizhan Bizhanova. - Of these, Almaty alone - 13 trillion tenge. The highest growth rates of trade turnover were recorded in the Turkestan region, which over 7 months showed growth of 64,4% with a turnover of 428,6 billion tenge, Akmola - by 44,7% and Shymkent - by 20,5%.
It was noted that while wholesale trade depends on several factors related to the level of development of industry and processing, the number of registered companies and the availability of large warehouses, retail trade directly depends on the number and standard of living of the population, which akimats need to pay special attention to.
Mining industry
In January–July, 58,5 million tons of oil were produced (+11,9% compared to 2024). According to the results of January–August, 66,7 million tons (+12,1%) are expected.
Manufacturing industry
In the structure of the manufacturing industry, which accounts for 12,4% of the GDP, the largest share is occupied by metallurgy (40,1%), mechanical engineering (18,9%), food products (13,4%), oil refining (5%), production of building materials (+5,5%) and chemical industry (4,6%). Over 7 months, the growth of the manufacturing industry was 6,1%.
The metallurgical industry showed 1,3% growth over the same period. This relatively low result is due to the record growth rates of the industry over the past 10 years at +6,9% and the high utilisation of the existing capacities of metallurgical enterprises.
According to the acting chairman of the Industry Committee of the Ministry of Railways Shyngys Suyunbaev, the industry has reserves to achieve 5% growth by the end of the year, but this requires a set of procedural measures. Serik Zhumangarin tasked the Ministry of Railways with providing a detailed analysis of the impact of the proposed measures on the growth of the industry in order to achieve significant growth in the industry indicator.
In mechanical engineering, growth is expected based on the results of 8 months due to an increase in the production of motor vehicles, agricultural machinery, electrical and household equipment. In the automotive sector, it is planned to produce more than 160 thousand cars this year; 75,406 have already been produced in 7 months. Additional growth will be provided by the launch of new projects and a number of measures to support the domestic auto industry.
In the railway engineering industry, 67 locomotives and 1 984 wagons were produced in 7 months. The headquarters meeting discussed measures that could provide additional growth to the industry.
Construction
The construction industry generates about 6% of GDP. From January to July, 9,4 million square meters of housing were commissioned, which is 5,2% higher than last year. The plan was fulfilled by 48,9%. Serik Zhumangarin Serik Zhumangarin instructed the Ministry of Industry and Construction to intensify work with the regions on the timely acceptance of facilities into operation.
Following the meeting, Serik Zhumangarin instructed to maintain the set growth rates and ensure timely implementation of plans for all key sectors of the economy.