Recommendations on a trading strategy for grain, oilseed and legume producers

Recommendations on a trading strategy for grain, oilseed and legume producers

10.12.2024 21:10:34 2632

These recommendations were developed by the scientific research bureau "Cereals and oilseeds. Kazakhstan".
Cereals
In early December, the cost of a "troika" with gluten 25 by 5 tenge/kg, with gluten 28 by 1 tenge/kg sank.
According to traders, farmers continue to hold high-pro wheat in anticipation of an increase in the price tag.
According to the ZM respondents, the cost of grain will change depending on the state of winter crops in Russia by spring. If their condition is unsatisfactory, therefore, forecasts for the harvest in 2025 will decrease, which will entail an upward price adjustment in both the Russian Federation and the Republic of Kazakhstan.
Traders are confused – "because of misunderstandings in the domestic market, you don't know how much to buy, how much to sell."
tg/kg, including VAT, from the elevator
Current
average price (elevator)
Changes
Recommendation
Possible
max
Possible min
wheat meag 3 kl, 28 kl +
105
-1
sale
145
90
wheat of 3 kl, up to 25 kl
66
-5
sale
95
70
wheat of 3 kl, up to 23 kl
63
-
sale
85
60
wheat of 4 kl, up to 20 kl
57
-
AS NEEDED
80
50
wheat of 5 kl, up to 17 kl
48
-
sale
65
35
barley 2 kl
50
-
sale
60
35
Durum (prot 14+)
85
-
AS NEEDED
120
70
Durum (prot 15+)
102
-
AS NEEDED
150
90
in red - a decrease in a week, in green – an increase, all prices – for a new harvest
Oilseeds/Legumes
Flax and safflower rose in price by 4 tenge in the oilseed group, sunflower increased by 9 tenge/kg.
According to one of the traders, oilseeds are going to China. The price of Alashankou:
safflower - $ 345/ton;
sunflower - 500 USD/ton;
flax - 500-505 USD/ton.
Some traders report that the oil is not being shipped yet, contracts are being prepared.
tg/kg, including VAT, from the elevator
Current price
Changes
Recommendation
Possible
max
Possible min
Flax
202
+4
sale
200
170
Rapeseed
209
-
sale
250
180
Sunflower
174
+9
AS NEEDED
190
160
Safflower
94
+4
AS NEEDED
110
85
Soy
193
-
sale
285
200
Mustard is black/white
215
-
AS NEEDED
300
200
Peas (yellow)*
92
-
AS NEEDED
170
80
Red lentils**
182
-
sale
220
180
Zel lentils (large containers) **
400
-
sale
450
350
Meanwhile, in the European part of Russia, sunflower, after a prolonged rise in price, interrupted price growth. According to experts, the cost of oilseeds sank against the background of lower export prices for sunflower oil and lower demand from processors.
*-northern regions with premium quality, **-excluding VAT, the new crop is highlighted in italics
Explanation:
The current price is the weighted average prices with VAT within Kazakhstan on the elevator or on the wagon, for which contracts are concluded. Prices may vary depending on the region, quality indicators, and delivery conditions.
Recommendations: stop – it is recommended to suspend trading to more favorable prices; as needed – sale as necessary (technical, financial); sale – it is recommended to sell the product, since favorable prospects are not expected in the near future.
The possible maximum is the upper price limit, which, as it seems to the authors of this brochure, prices can reach in the current trading season. This opinion is not final, and may change depending on the situation.
The possible min is the lower price limit that the culture is able to achieve in the current season.

Source : https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/moa/press/news/details/900032