Since the beginning of August, Kazakhstan has seen a noticeable slowdown in food price growth. While the difference between food inflation and inflation for non-food goods and services was 4.6 percentage points in the second quarter, this gap has now narrowed to 2.9 points. In July and August alone, food prices increased by 1.2 percentage points, while in August, food inflation was only 0.5%—half that of non-food goods and three times lower than that of services.

Particular attention is being paid to socially important food products. The food basket includes 160 items, of which only 19 are subject to state regulation. The price index for socially important food products (SIFP) has been 8% since the beginning of the year, but remained unchanged in August and increased by only 0.2% during the first three weeks of September.

The positive trend is particularly noticeable in the vegetable category. Since the beginning of August, we have managed to reduce the rate of price growth by an average of 2.5 times. For example, potatoes, which cost 300 tenge per kilogram in July, are now selling for 184 tenge—even lower than last year's level. Carrots have fallen in price from 295 to 193 tenge, and onions from 222 to 137 tenge. Other key products have also demonstrated stability. Dairy prices have increased by only 5.3% since the beginning of the year, which is considered moderate. Buckwheat has increased in price by 8.9%, but its share of the basket is insignificant, so its impact on the overall index is minimal. Moreover, products such as horns, flour, and rice are currently cheaper than last year.

At the same time, beef continues to have the greatest impact on price dynamics among socially significant products. This product traditionally occupies a significant share of the consumer basket, and price fluctuations for it have a significant impact on the household budget. It's especially important to note that this refers to shoulder-brisket beef, which is included in the list of socially significant goods and enjoys stable consumer demand. It ranks first in terms of impact on overall consumer inflation among food products, contributing approximately 2 percentage points. The overall meat price index since the beginning of the year has been approximately 25%, and for shoulder-brisket beef, which is included in the list of socially significant goods, it has been 23.6%.

Comparative analysis: beef prices in Kazakhstan and neighboring countries

In December 2023, shoulder-brisket beef cost an average of 2,506 tenge per kilogram, in September 2024 2,549 tenge, and in December of that year 2,572 tenge. Thus, the price remained virtually stable throughout the year, despite the increase in production costs associated with higher fuel and electricity tariffs. In some periods, the product was even sold below its actual cost, demonstrating the measures being taken to contain prices for important food categories.
To understand affordability compared to other countries in the region, we provide comparable data. Currently, the average price of shoulder-brisket beef in Kazakhstan is 4,715 tenge per kilogram. For comparison, it is 10,180 tenge in Russia, 5,227 tenge in Uzbekistan, 5,112 tenge in Armenia, 6,070 tenge in Tajikistan, and 4,480 tenge in Belarus. Thus, compared to most countries in the region, Kazakhstan's prices remain the most affordable.

What measures are being taken to contain prices?

To curb prices, a ban on the export of live cattle was introduced on May 15. This has helped slow price growth: while in February-April, growth was 3% per month, in May-July it was 1.4%. However, the attractiveness of Kazakh meat prices for neighboring countries, particularly Uzbekistan, and the opportunity to export processed meat have led to a significant increase in export volumes. To date, beef exports have reached 27,000 tons, 3.2 times higher than last year.

In this regard, the government has supported measures to saturate the domestic market. A decision was made to establish beef export quotas until the end of the year, with exports permitted only for meat processing plants. An initiative to establish a zero customs duty on imported beef from three countries is also being developed; the Russian Federation has also proposed a similar measure. This will help maintain a balance between domestic needs and the industry's export potential.

To improve the availability of products in the regions, agricultural fairs continue to be held. Since the beginning of the year alone, more than 3,700 have been held, with farmers provided free trading space. This helps avoid unnecessary intermediaries and keep prices at an acceptable level. In addition, prices are monitored daily in retail chains and markets. The latest inspection at the Anvar, Small, and Magnum chains found that trade markups were within the normal range of 5 to 14%, with no excesses detected. The price per kilogram of beef ranges from 2,650 to 3,890 tenge, depending on the purchase price. Moreover, for other meat cuts not included in the SZPT list, prices range from 500 tenge for a soup set to 5,500 tenge for an entrecote. These items are not subject to government regulation.

An important part of this work is combating unjustified markups and unnecessary middlemen. Since the beginning of the year, regional commissions across the country have held 747 meetings, resulting in the elimination of 345 unproductive middlemen. More than 2,000 administrative orders have been issued. In monitoring trade markups, the Ministry's regional departments have issued over 2,600 orders, 1,500 of which were fines totaling 56.5 million tenge, and another 1,200 were warnings. 2,200 decisions were issued for exceeding the maximum trade markup on socially important products alone, 1,000 of which were fines totaling 39.6 million tenge and 1,200 were warnings.

In addition, active analytical work is being conducted. Since the beginning of 2025, approximately 9,000 price chains have been analyzed, identifying more than 823 potential violations.

Thus, despite isolated challenges, overall food inflation is slowing, and prices for key social products are being maintained at a stable level. Kazakhstan maintains one of the most affordable food baskets among EAEU countries, and this work will continue in the interests of its citizens.

Source : https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/mti/press/news/details/1071967?lang=kk