The meeting of the Expert Council under the Ministry of National Economy reviewed the vision of a new proactive policy of economic growth in Kazakhstan. The government's main goal is to double the country's GDP by 2029, bringing it to $450 billion. For this, investments in the economy should increase by more than 2.5 times.

As noted by Vice Minister of National Economy Arman Kasenov, we are talking about the transition from a model where the state only accompanies business to a model of active participation in the organization and creation of industries and projects.

"We studied the experience of Japan, South Korea, and Singapore, countries that have achieved record growth rates precisely because the government has also participated in determining growth points and strategic directions for 5-10 years ahead," he explained. 

According to him, the implementation of this goal will require a large–scale increase in investments in fixed assets - from $41 billion in 2024 to $103 billion in 2029. During this period, the investment-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise from 14% to 23%, and the total investment volume for 2025-2029 will amount to about $400 billion.

As part of a proactive economic growth policy, government agencies will receive new functions – not only to attract, but also to organize large export-oriented projects, providing their structuring, financing and management support. The main tasks of government agencies in this area are to attract leading foreign and domestic companies to jointly implement export-oriented high-performance projects and to provide financing through development institutions included in the Baiterek holding. 

"We are not replacing the business, but working with it. Entrepreneurs create added value – they are the ones who drive progress. We are appealing to domestic and foreign companies to attract their experience, technology and capital, and we will form lists of foreign champions and leading companies in our key areas of investment development – deep and medium grain processing, metallurgy, petrochemistry, and others. We are initiating negotiations with them regarding their participation in Kazakhstani projects. We hope that their investments, expertise, first—class understanding of the industry, technologies and much more will allow us to implement these projects most successfully," Arman Kasenov emphasized. 

Serik Zhumangarin, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy, noted that the Investment Board, an investment service that will identify and support country-wide priority projects, is of key importance in the new model.

"In the new policy of proactive economic growth, we are talking about large projects that require high expertise. We plan to structure the development directions and create an Investment Board, an investment service, of professionals with high competencies in managing large projects, who will determine the directions and projects of our economy for the most effective development," Serik Zhumangarin emphasized.

According to him, the previous system of attracting investments will remain, but it is the Investment Board that will become the driver of proactive policy.

The experts made a number of suggestions and recommendations regarding the proposed vision of economic growth policy. In particular, how the new document will differ from the previous ones, whether the level of localization of new production facilities in Kazakhstan will be increased, what channels of distribution of funds will be, the impact of active economic growth and consumer lending on inflation, as well as many others. 

Chairman of the Public Council of the Ministry of National Economy Eldar Shamsutdinov noted that the main topic of discussion was the model of ensuring economic growth and the implementation of the state industrial program.

"One of the key issues concerned who would be involved in lending: the state itself through its own development institutions or commercial banks, to which funds would be allocated for subsequent lending. The logic is probably as follows: lending through banks inevitably leads to an increase in inflation, since it is the banking system that is the main mechanism for implementing inflationary processes. At the same time, it was noted that consumer lending makes a significant contribution to GDP growth today. In addition, it is planned to form an investment service, which will include participants who identify priority projects. The issue is the choice of specific financing mechanisms. These details will probably be worked out in the process," he said.

Galim Khusainov, a member of the Board of Directors of Teniz Capital Investment Banking, stressed that the new policy meets the modern challenges facing the economy of Kazakhstan and focuses on the country's domestic investment potential.

"Today we discussed how to achieve the stated target level of 450 billion dollars of GDP. This is impossible without a significant increase in investment. Therefore, the proposal of the Ministry of National Economy on the transition to a more active state participation in investment policy seems justified and timely," he said. 

According to him, the large-scale involvement of development institutions, primarily the Baiterek holding, will create a financial infrastructure that will ensure the movement of capital from the state to specific industries and projects within the country. At the same time, it will be important to attract foreign companies not only as sources of capital, but also as carriers of competencies, technologies and management practices.

"The main thing is that the projects initiated by the state have a clear economic model, transparent selection and support mechanisms. Then they will be able to attract private capital and international participation. Without this, growth will be limited by budget financing," the expert noted.

He also added that the new policy should clearly define the role of the private sector and the banking system.

"The question remains how investments will be distributed and how actively commercial banks will be involved in this process. On the one hand, the direct participation of the state provides guarantees and speed, on the other hand, it is important to preserve market mechanisms so as not to displace private initiative," Galim Khusainov explained.

As the expert summarized, a competent combination of government and market instruments will allow Kazakhstan to reach a qualitatively new level of economic growth, while avoiding overheating and excessive inflation.

https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/economy/press/news/details/1081075?lang=ru

Source : https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/kostanai-ekonomika-zhosparlau/press/news/details/1081915?lang=kk