GDP growth forecasts for 2026 reviewed by the Government
29.12.2025 16:10:36 1432
The Government, chaired by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin, discussed forecasts of socio-economic development and GDP growth parameters for 2026. It is expected that the main contribution to economic growth next year will be provided by the manufacturing industry, construction, transport and warehousing, trade, food and beverage production.
In the manufacturing industry, the physical volume index is expected to grow by 6% by the end of 2025. In 2026, as part of the National Development Plan of the Republic of Kazakhstan until 2029, the target is set at 6.2%.
Production growth in metallurgy, the main processing driver, is expected to reach 3% in 2026. The increase in output is expected primarily due to reaching the design capacity of the plants launched this year and last year by Kyzyl Aray Copper, EkibastuzFerroAlloyse, KazferroLimited, Shagala Mining, etc. It is planned to increase production of ferroalloys, steel, flat rolled products and cast iron in ferrous metallurgy, and gold, copper, aluminum, and zinc in non–ferrous metallurgy.
In mechanical engineering, the planned growth rate is set at 13.4% in 2026. This indicator will be achieved by increasing the production of passenger cars by 17%, due to the introduction of Astana Motors Manufacturing Kazakhstan LLP and KIA Qazaqstan LLP this year. In addition, it is planned to increase the output of agricultural machinery by 5%.
It is worth noting that by the end of 2025, 436.5 thousand units of household appliances are expected to be produced, which is more than 1.5 times more than in 2024. Household appliances – televisions, washing machines, stoves, etc. – are manufactured in Kazakhstan by Silk Road Electronics LLP, Almaty Turmystyk Machinery Plants LLP and DS Multimedia CA LLP. It is planned to produce 1.5 times more household appliances in 2026 than in 2025.
In the chemical industry, production growth is expected to reach 7% in 2026. It will be provided with the introduction of new capacities: sulfuric acid, sodium cyanide, hydrogen peroxide and liquid glass.
In the production of building materials, the share of domestic producers in the domestic market has reached 70% this year. In 2026, the IFO is expected to grow by 6% in this sector. The drivers will be an increase in the production of Portland cement, ceramic tiles, precast concrete and ready-mixed concrete. Among the reserves are a new ceramic tile factory in Shymkent and a cement plant. A record volume of cement production is expected in 2025, and growth will continue in 2026 as enterprises reach their design capacity.
In trade, by the end of 2025, trade turnover is projected to grow to 108.9% in nominal terms – about 80.3 trillion tenge (+14.6%). In 2026, the target is 92.4 trillion tenge with an increase of 106.5%.
The growth will be ensured by maintaining the volume of oil and petroleum products production, the launch of large-scale programs for processing food and non-food products, as well as the start of full-fledged operation of four large B2B platforms focused on wholesale export trade, including the Chinese direction.
In agriculture, in 2026, high growth is expected in the production of food and beverages – 109% and 109.3%, respectively.
Following the meeting, the Deputy Prime Minister instructed the central government agencies to develop and submit roadmaps for the development of industries for the first quarter of 2026 with an emphasis on achieving planned industrial growth targets, implementing key investment and infrastructure projects, developing additional reserves, as well as ensuring sustainable growth dynamics in agriculture, trade and transport.
https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/economy/press/news/details/1134250?lang=ru