The Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan for Regulation and Development of Financial Market (hereinafter, the Agency) has published the results of the regular asset quality review (AQR) of the banking sector for 2025. The report provides a detailed analysis of the current level of credit risk based on the regular AQR results.

In 2025, the Agency conducted the regular AQR on 11 leading banks, whose assets account for 86% of the banking system. The analyzed debt reached ₸32.8 trillion, increasing by 19.7% year-on-year basis. The main part of the debt is represented by unsecured consumer loans (₸11 trillion), as well as portfolios of loans for large business (₸4.7 trillion), small business (₸4.5 trillion), and investment projects (₸3.6 trillion).

On an individual basis, 1 299 major borrowers, as well as 580 co-borrowers and guarantors with a total debt of ₸9.9 trillion, were assessed. 37.7 million loans totaling ₸22.9 trillion were analyzed on a collective basis.

The results of the regular AQR confirmed the sector's resilience at the systemic level: the capital adequacy ratio for 11 banks was 17.7%, which is significantly higher than the regulatory minimum requirement.

The difference in reserve estimates between banks and the regular AQR amounted to ₸377.4 billion. The share of Stage 2 loans increased by ₸678.1 billion, from 1.4% to 3.5%, while the share of Stage 3 loans rose by ₸422.4 billion, from 7.5% to 8.7%.

Compared to the regular AQR of 2024, the assessment results improved: reserve adjustments decreased by ₸37.7 billion, despite the growth in banks' loan portfolios. There is also a decrease in the share of Stage 3 loans by 1.1 p.p.

The results of the regular AQR 2025 indicate an improvement in the quality of banks’ credit portfolios, as reflected in a lower share of Stage 3 loans exposures and a reduction in the volume of additional provisions. Compared to AQR 2024, the largest decrease in additional provisions was observed in the investment loan portfolio (by KZT 61.6 billion), primarily driven by loans assessed on a collective basis. This trend is attributable to the implementation of the Agency’s recommendations on LGD parameter estimation and an overall decline in the portfolio’s probability of default (PD), which confirms an enhancement in the quality of credit risk assessment.

Detailed results of the regular AQR 2025 are presented in the report by portfolio, assessment method, industry, and risk metrics and compared to the results of the last year's AQR.

For the first time, the report has been supplemented with a dedicated section presenting results for each individual bank. The disclosure of data on a bank-by-bank basis is intended to enhance the transparency of supervisory information and to provide a more comprehensive and comparable understanding of the level of credit risk in the banking sector. This approach also contributes to greater openness of supervisory conclusions and improves the quality of the Agency’s engagement with market participants.

External Communications Directorate

press@finreg.kz

Source : https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/ardfm/press/news/details/1152793?lang=kk