Experts from the Forecasting and Research Department of the Center for Human Resources Development JSC (hereinafter – CRRT) have prepared a demographic forecast based on fertility, mortality and migration rates. According to the analysis, by 2030, the urban population of Kazakhstan will increase by 13%, reaching 14 million people, and by 2050 it will grow by 57%, reaching 19.3 million. At the same time, the rural population will increase by only 1% to 7.7 million people by 2030, and by about 9% to 8.2 million people by 2050.
Dmitry Shumekov, Director of the Department of Forecasting and Research at CRTR, described in detail how the demographic forecast is formed.
"It is developed on the basis of 2401 scenarios, which are divided into two categories – basic and analytical. The main one includes 7 unified scenarios – basic, as well as high and low, which in turn are divided into weak (5% change compared to 2023), moderate (10% change) and strong (15% change) options.
The analytical category includes all other scenarios that are of more interest to analysts and modeling," he shared.
According to the forecast, by 2030, under the baseline scenario, the urban population will grow the most in Astana – by 538.3 thousand people, or by 39%, to 1.9 million people, in Almaty – by 469.3 thousand people, or by 21%, to 2 million 664 thousand people, in Shymkent – by 209.6 thousand people, or by 17%, to 1 million 416 thousand people. At the same time, the population of the three megacities will make up 43% of the total urban population, and by 2050 this figure will increase to 51%.
In addition, regionally, the urban population will grow by 79.2 thousand people in the Mangystau region, by 70.3 thousand people in Aktobe, and by 62.4 thousand people in Turkestan. At the same time, the urban population may decrease in the East Kazakhstan, North Kazakhstan and Pavlodar regions.
The growth of the rural population by 2030 compared to 2023 is expected only in five regions: in the Almaty region by 140.8 thousand people, in Turkestan by 94.7 thousand people, in Mangystau by 58.1 thousand people, in Kyzylorda by 26 thousand people and in Atyrau by 21.5 thousand people.
By 2030, the most significant decrease in the rural population is projected in Kostanay region, Abai region and North Kazakhstan region, where the reduction will amount to 37.1 thousand, 35.2 thousand and 33.8 thousand people, respectively.
By 2050, according to the calculations of CRTR analysts, under the basic forecast, the Mangystau region will become the leader in urban population growth, excluding megacities. 736.6 thousand people will live in the cities of the region, which is 384 thousand, or 2.1 times more than in 2023. In the Turkestan region, the increase will amount to 355 thousand people, which corresponds to an increase of 1.7 times to 878.7 thousand people. In Aktobe region, the number of urban residents will grow to 1 million people – by 307 thousand people (+44% by 2023). A decrease in the number of citizens is projected in Pavlodar, East Kazakhstan and North Kazakhstan regions, a decrease of 7%, 6% and 5%, respectively.
The rural population will grow in the southern and western regions of Kazakhstan. In the Almaty region, the growth will amount to 658 thousand people to the level of 1 million 931 thousand people, which is 52% more than in 2023. In the Turkestan region, the rural population will grow by 495.2 thousand people to a level of 2 million 102 thousand people. In the Mangystau region, the rural population in 2050 may reach 709 thousand people, which is 284.7 thousand more than in 2023.
The largest decrease in the number of rural residents is expected in Kostanay region – by 163.6 thousand people, to a level of 151.7 thousand people, which is 52% less than in 2023. In the Abai region, the reduction will amount to 149.6 thousand people to 87.6 thousand people. In the North Kazakhstan region, the decrease in the rural population by 2050 will amount to 141.6 thousand people to a level of 131.3 thousand people.

Source : https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/enbek/press/news/details/910441