As of January 1, 2026, Kazakhstan's population was approximately 20.5 million people: 8.79 million (42.9%) were under 25, 9.73 million (47.5%) were aged 25 to 65, and 1.98 million (9.6%)[1] were over 65. According to demographic projections, this number will increase to 26.5 million by 2050.

long with Kazakhstan's population growth, its age structure is changing: life expectancy is increasing, the birth rate is declining, the proportion of elderly citizens is growing, and the ratio of the working-age population to the number of pensioners is decreasing. These changes are having an increasingly significant impact on the country's socioeconomic system, including the pension system.

Taking into account global trends in demographics and the labor market, the Head of State in his address set the task of “taking measures to strengthen the financial stability of the pension system, ensuring long-term balance and a decent level of pensions.”

Life expectancy and proportion of elderly people

Life expectancy (LE)[2], after declining in 2020-2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, increased from 70.23 years in 2021 to 75.97 years in 2025.

A similar trend is observed globally: according to WHO estimates, the global average LE, which declined to 71.4 years during the pandemic, returned to pre-pandemic levels by 2025, averaging 73.8 years. Thus, Kazakhstan is following the global trend of increasing LE (see table):

At the same time, a significant increase in the proportion of the elderly population is projected. According to UAPF and UN forecasts, by 2050, the proportion of citizens aged 60 and over will reach 18.8% of the total population in Kazakhstan, which, according to international classifications, already corresponds to the "very high level of demographic old age." In other words, by mid-century, on average, one in six Kazakhstanis will be aged 60 and over.

Fact and forecast of the share of people aged 60 years and older in the total population

Total fertility rate

The total fertility rate (TFR), which measures the average number of children a woman would give birth to over her entire reproductive life (i.e., approximately 15 to 50 years), has a significant impact on population structure.

After a moderate increase in the TFR in 2020-2021, a steady decline in the TFR has been recorded: from 3.32 in 2021 to 3.06 in 2022 and to 2.57 in 2025. According to the UN long-term forecast, the TFR in Kazakhstan is expected to decline to 2.39 children per woman by 2050. Actual TFR values ​​in Kazakhstan for 2015-2025 are presented in the table below:

Declining birth rates are a global trend. Combined with increasing life expectancy, this leads to a reduction in the proportion of the working-age population, resulting in an increased demographic burden on the economically active population.

Net migration [3]

The UNFPA (United Nations Population Fund) office in Kazakhstan, in the report “Analysis of the Population Situation of the Republic of Kazakhstan,” predicts the gradual achievement of a zero migration balance (0 per 1000 people) by 2050. This forecast is based on the economic development of the republic, accompanied by high demand for labor, the gradual exhaustion of the potential for ethnic emigration, as well as rapid population growth in the countries south of Kazakhstan.

Below is the number of immigrants and emigrants for 2021 - 2025:

            Thus, following the pandemic, the annual number of people arriving in Kazakhstan since 2021 has increased by 2.15 times, while the number of people leaving has decreased by 4.24 times.

Potential support ratio

The potential support ratio (PSR), calculated globally as the number of people of working age (25 to 64 years) divided by the number of people aged 65 and over, continues to decline.

The ratio of people of working age (25-64 years) to elderly people (65+ years) decreased from 7.68 in 2012 to 4.95 in 2025. The expected growth of the elderly population, combined with the decline in the share of the population aged 25 to 64 (see diagram), means that, according to forecasts (both UAPF and the UN), the PSR in Kazakhstan will decrease by more than 1.4 times between 2025 and 2050: there will be only 3.42 people of working age for every person aged 65+.

Actual and forecasted potential support ratio

Thus, just as globally, demographic changes in Kazakhstan will increase the social burden on the country's budget. Under these circumstances, the importance of the funded pension system increases. In this system, future pensions are formed through employee and employer contributions, avoiding long-term deferred liabilities for the budget. This ensures the balance and financial sustainability of the pension system, and reduces its dependence on demographic factors.

Personal Retirement Planning in a Time of Demographic Change

In the context of demographic changes (aging population, increasing life expectancy, declining birth rates), the role of personal retirement planning is increasing.

The funded pension system allows citizens to independently influence their future retirement income through regular contributions and investment income.

Amendments to the Social Code of the Republic of Kazakhstan, effective September 7, 2026, provide additional opportunities for managing pension savings. UAPF contributors will be able to transfer up to 100% of their pension savings to investment portfolio managers (IPMs) for trust management. Furthermore, each IPM will be able to offer up to three investment portfolios (conservative, moderate, and risky), differing in risk level, expected return, and investment structure. This will allow contributors to choose an investment strategy that suits their financial goals.

Full information on the investment results of the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan and IPMs is available on the dedicated UAPF portal, invest.enpf.kz. For pension forecasting and planning, UAPF offers two convenient services: the "Pension Calculator" and the "Personal Pension Plan." They are available on the UAPF website and in the mobile app. They can be used to calculate your future pension and identify possible ways to increase your future retirement income.

UAPF was founded on August 22, 2013 on the basis of GNPF APF JSC. The founder and shareholder of the UAPF is the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan represented by the State Institution Committee of State Property and Privatization of the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Trust management of UAPF pension assets is carried out by the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan. In accordance with the pension legislation, the UAPF attracts compulsory pension contributions, employer’s compulsory pension contributions, compulsory occupational pension contributions, voluntary pension contributions, as well as carries out enrollment and accounting of voluntary pension contributions formed at the expense of the unclaimed amount of guaranteed compensation for the guaranteed deposit, transferred by the organization carrying out mandatory guarantee of deposits, in accordance with the Law of the Republic of Kazakhstan "On mandatory guarantee of deposits placed in second-tier banks of the Republic of Kazakhstan", ensures the implementation of pension benefits. The Fund also carries out accounting of target assets and target requirements, accounting and crediting of target savings (TS) to target savings accounts, payments of TS to their recipients in bank accounts, accounting for returns of TS in the manner determined by the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan within the framework of the National Fund for Children program (More details at www.enpf.kz)

[1] according to the Bureau of National Statistics of the Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan for Strategic Planning and Reforms (BNS ASPR)

[2] the average life expectancy a person will live if the mortality rate remains the same as in the year in question

[3] The difference between the number of people who arrived in a territory (arrived) and the number of those who left it (departed) over a certain period of time.

Source : https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/abay-kokpekti/press/news/details/1272362?lang=ru